Coincidence, random chance or pattern seeking behaviour?
| Monday 12th October 2009 06:56am 1 | ||
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Aussie Ali 8 Posts |
When I was a Christian and coincidences happened, I always gave God
the credit, even when the coincidence had no real meaning. I liked
to think that God was showing me that supernatural events happened
to demonstrate that He was active in the world.
Since deconverting I no longer look for meaning in things that happen to me, but I am still struck by the number of strange coincidences that happen every few days. Here are some examples:
How random does an event have to be to make it really random? Does this happen to everyone and therefore it is just a recognition of patterns? Can anyone point me to any further info about this as I couldn't find much about it? Thanks. Ali |
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| Monday 12th October 2009 08:02am 2 | ||
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Roy 11 Posts |
How random does an event have to be to make it really
random?
That's a good question. Does this happen to everyone and therefore it is just a recognition of patterns? I can't speak for everyone but it happens to me too. Can anyone point me to any further info about this as I couldn't find much about it? I'll try to look into it, but if anybody else knows more about this, I would be interested too. |
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| Monday 12th October 2009 12:19pm 3 | ||
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Ubi Dubium 49 Posts |
I'd recommend reading Michael Shermer, a noted skeptic, for good
discussions of this. A quick google search turned up this article.
Sections #13 and 14 are about what you are discussing. He's written
a lot on this topic.
My thoughts on this. Think about how many times a day a "million-to-one-shot" could happen to you, but it doesn't. How many words do you read that are not immediately said on the TV? How many old friends do you think about who don't call you? How many times do you hear somebody mention a breakfast food that you are not having that day? How many times could you have found a $20.00 bill lying on the ground, but you didn't? And on and on and on. There are a colossal number of possible coincidences that could happen any given moment of the day. It doesn't take very long for a million possible million-to-one coincidences to fail to happen. In a million tries, we would expect a million-to-one-shot to happen, on average, once. But we are wired to remember that one coincidence, and forget all the times nothing happened. Nobody says "In this crowd of people, statistically, I should have bumped into an old friend by now, but I haven't. Spooky!" Things that don't happen just don't register on our radar. So everybody has the spooky experience of having that one coincidence happen, because nobody takes any note of all the times nothing did. |
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| Monday 12th October 2009 08:17pm 4 | ||
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orDover 68 Posts |
Another way to look at so-called "freaky" coincidences is through
statistics. For example, it doesn't seem like it at first, but the
chance that two random people would have the same birthday is
actually pretty high. There's an entire Wikipedia article on this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
If you have a group of 23 people, the chance that two will have
the same birthday is over 50%, if you have 57 people or more, the
chance is 99%. 57 people isn't that big of a group. If you're in
a group of 23 people, the chance that one of them has the same
birthday as you is 6%, or 1 in 16. That's not that bad. Because
there are only 365 days when someone can have a birthday, the
chances of two random people having the same one is pretty good.
Likewise, think of your egg coincidence. There are only a few
breakfast foods that people usually consume, so the chances that
eating eggs would be widely discussed on any giving morning is
pretty high.
The other two examples I think are just caused by heightened
attention. I can't even being to count how many times I've read a
particular word that seemed foreign to me or that I didn't know
the exact definition of, and then after I decided to look it up,
I heard it a dozen times in the same day. I'm sure all the other
days of my life I heard that word several times, but I was never
really paying attention to it, and as soon as I had singled it
out, every time I heard it, it was like a red flag going up, "Ah!
That word again!"
If you think in terms of statistics and then factor in your
attention, I think the chances that you would read a word and
hear the word at the same time would be pretty high. There are
only so many words in the English language, and only so many that
are in common use. The OED says there are about 170,000 words in
current use, and I bet only 1/2 or so of those words are used
frequently. So the chance that you'd come across the same word
twice in once instance would be fairly high.
As far at the TV, again it's just a matter of attention. Someone
mentions scorpions, you're thinking about scorpions (even if just
in the back of your mind), you see one on TV, and your brain
registers a flash of recognition.
Ubi pointed it out already, but how many times have these things
NOT happened? How many times have you read a word and not heard
that word at the same time? How many times have you overheard a
conversation that in no way correlated to anything on TV? These
instances could happen hundreds of times every day.
And yes, these things happen to everybody.
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| Monday 12th October 2009 09:04pm 5 | ||
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Austin 10 Posts |
One of the things has gotten under my skin the most is when
Christians try to press meaning into every meaningless thing that
happens. When it is a "good thing", then God is obviously given
"the glory". If it is a "bad thing", then of course, God is just
using that circumstance to test and refine faith.
Even when I was a child, this whole issue seemed hinky to me. It always seemed incredibly narcissistic to me to hear people go on and on about how God had bestowed upon them a special blessing by allowing/helping them to find their car keys, or whatever. One thing people commonly pray for (Christians and non-religious people alike) is physical healing. If their loved one is sick, they pray that God will provide a special healing for that person. They ask all of their friends to pray that God will do so. If there is any improvement, or the chemotherapy does its job, then of course, God healed that person. If the illness took its expected course, then God "was in control" and was simply testing the faith of the faithful again. Pretty convenient, if you ask me. A lady in the Bible study I recently stopped attending was very well-known for these claims. At one point, she said she had a serious heart condition, but when the doctors did the catheterization, there was no sign of heart disease ("praise God"). There are at least six different illnesses/conditions from which God has apparently "healed her". I guess he loves her so much more than everybody else, as people all over the world suffer and die from disease and poverty every single day and God doesn't seemed to do a damned thing for them, but by golly, he really loves this one lady. She's really special to him, I guess. It makes me want to hurl. Sorry - didn't mean to get completely off-topic, but I have come to the conclusion that coincidence is just part of life, and given the mathematic nature of the possibilities, surely there will be some that we all experience. I am learning not to attach anything more to any circumstance than it actually deserves (or at least, trying to |
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| Monday 12th October 2009 11:55pm 6 | ||
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orDover 68 Posts |
I'll have to join Austin in veering off topic, because the
situation with modern medicine and Christianity really pisses me
off, and it's something I have to deal with on a daily basis,
thanks to facebook and relatives who like to send out mass emails.
Recently my grandma had hip replacement surgery. Everyone was
praising Jesus that it was a success, and yet I heard not ONE
word of thanks to the medical team that made that success
powerful. Then recently my cousin's baby who is about a year old
had to go the ER with respiratory issues, which was originally
diagnosed as something very serious until a later test showed it
was just an infection. So much praising of Jesus! But no one
thought to be mad at Jesus for giving a baby a respiratory
infection. Why couldn't Jesus just keep them both healthy?
This is now most Christians think that medicine operates (pun!):
![]()
And yet these are the same people that go on and on about God's
gift of free will. What's the difference between "guiding the
doctor's hands" and "pulling the doctor's puppet strings?"
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| Friday 30th October 2009 04:04am 7 | ||
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Aussie Ali 8 Posts |
Thanks everyone for your comments. I've been on hols so took a
while to answer.
I know you're right but sometime those coincidences seem so damn amazing!!!! |
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| Friday 30th October 2009 11:36am 8 | ||
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Infidel 86 Posts |
This discussion leads me to another one. How many of you have been
(me) or have known people who looked for "signs" that god was
leading them to do something? And they used coincidences as
justification?
For example, I have a missionary friend (well, not any more, but that's another thread) who was trying to decide if god was calling him to be a missionary. What did he use a confirmation? (This is no joke) The church bulletin. You see, he was considering being a missionary to Brazil and one Sunday the church bulleting had a bible and a globe on the cover and, lo and behold! the corner of the bible was pointing towards Brazil! And THAT is how he determined that god had indeed called him to be a missionary to Brazil. Amazing. |
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| Friday 30th October 2009 10:59pm 9 | ||
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Eve's Apple 18 Posts |
Yes, I have known quite a few people who do that. I did that once
or twice myself. But the trouble is I find myself unable to
compartmentalize for very long. I can't just look at the
coincidences that seem to answer my prayers and ignore the times
when they weren't answered. And I have seen people get all worked
up over very trivial things yet are blind to the bigger things.
There was a Christian woman I knew who was separated (but not
divorced) from her husband (who had walked out on her some years
ago). She met a man at her church who was studying for the ministry
and they began dating. Week after week I had to hear about all the
ways that God was showing her that this was the one, and how they
were going to get married, etc. When I pointed out the not-so-minor
fact that she was still legally married to her husband and wasn't
free to remarry, she just dismissed me. The Lord was leading her.
Well, it turned out that when the church elders learned of the
situation, they took her boyfriend aside and told him point-blank
that he could no longer continue as a candidate for the ministry as
long as he was seeing a married woman. Surprise, surprise. All of a
sudden, the Lord apparently woke up and said NO, because he chose
the ministry. I said to her when she told me this, "I told you
right from the start that I doubted that the Lord would approve you
getting into a new relationship as long as you were still married,
from what I understand of Scripture, this is not something He
condones. But you kept insisting that the Lord was leading you and
that this relationship was His will. Now you are telling me that
the Lord is telling you that it is not His will after all. Does God
do green light, green light, green light, red?" Maybe that was a
bit harsh, but you have to understand she was always after me to
accept Jesus, and always telling me what wonderful things He was
doing in her life, and what wonderful things He would do in mine if
only I believed. Unfortunately I have gone through too much to fall
for that nonsense anymore. Like the little boy who could not see
the emperor's new clothes I do not see the wonders God is doing in
her life. Instead I see a great deal of other things, things that
are ignored and not answered, things like why did your husband just
go off and leave one day? What was happening there? There must have
been something deep-seated going on. I can't say and it is really
not my business, except that if someone is trying to witness to me
in such a fashion, they cannot pick and choose the events in their
life. I cannot compartmentalize like some people, I look at the
whole picture, and the whole picture has to make sense. Because it
does look to me like people are grasping at straws.
But you know what I get told by these same people? You think too much! And then they wonder why I am not attracted to their faith. Because thinking is who I am. I can no more stop thinking than I can stop breathing. |
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| Friday 30th October 2009 11:56pm 10 | ||
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LeoPardus 93 Posts |
Does God do green light, green
light, green light, red?"
LOL. Brilliant.
I cannot compartmentalize like
some people, I look at the whole picture, and the whole picture
has to make sense.
But you know what I get told by these same people? You think too much! And then they wonder why I am not attracted to their faith.
Yeppers. If you want to believe, you really must divorce your
brain. S'Funny how often I stood up against that very charge when
I was a believer, and now I see that it was absolutely true. I
run into it any time a conversation with my wife gets to the
faith. She's one helluva smart person, but she will NOT let
follow her brain when it comes to the faith. She sees where it's
leading and bails.
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| Saturday 31st October 2009 01:01am 11 | ||
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Infidel 86 Posts |
Yeah, I'm guilty of this to. Perhaps that's why I'm not a "believer" any more. I just wanted my christianity to make sense and it didn't. |
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| Saturday 31st October 2009 10:30pm 12 | ||
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Austin 10 Posts |
The deal with asking God for a "sign" is often called "putting out
a fleece". It refers to a story in the bible where a guy named
Gideon was looking for God's direction on some thing or another and
put out a sheep's fleece at night and if it was dry in the morning,
it meant one thing and if it was wet, it meant another.
LOL |
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| Sunday 1st November 2009 06:36pm 13 | ||
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orDover 68 Posts |
Right. And we're also kind of told not to "put out a fleece"
because we're not supposed to test God, despite the fact that many
people in the Bible asked for specific signs and were rewarded.
But back to the fleece, what a miracle! God made some wool wet!
That's an amazing power.
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